Report Forecasts $2.85T U.S. Construction Market

U.S. construction spending is projected to reach $2.85 trillion by 2031, up from $2.22 trillion in 2026, according to the National Construction Spending Trends Report from Merlo America and BiltData.ai.

The forecast represents an increase of more than $600 billion over five years. The report examines construction spending, metropolitan economic trends, employment growth, data center capacity, and agricultural economic indicators to identify where construction activity is expected to grow.

California, Texas, Florida, New York, and New Jersey are projected to account for approximately 42% of U.S. construction spending by 2031.

The New York-Newark-Jersey City metropolitan area is expected to lead the country with $230 billion in construction spending, representing approximately 8% of total U.S. spending. Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Houston are projected to follow.

The report also forecasts that the top 10 metropolitan areas will collectively represent more than one-third of U.S. construction spending.

"Every business in our industry is making decisions today that will shape the next five years," said Cole Renken, general manager of Merlo America. "Whether you're investing in equipment, expanding a branch, or growing a service team, understanding where demand is heading gives you a real advantage. That's exactly what this report is designed to help with."

Artificial intelligence (AI) and digital infrastructure are expected to play a growing role in construction demand. The report projects that the top 12 metropolitan markets will account for nearly 73% of U.S. data center capacity by 2031.

Dallas-Fort Worth, Washington, D.C., Chicago, and Phoenix are expected to remain among the leading technology-driven construction markets.

"AI is accelerating investment in data centers and infrastructure, but the bigger opportunity is understanding where that work is happening. Our goal is to help contractors, dealers, and rental companies move beyond the headlines by turning market data into practical insight they can use to make smarter decisions about where to invest and grow,” shares Nick Mavrick, CEO of BiltData.ai.

The report forecasts $1.026 trillion in residential construction spending by 2031. Commercial construction is projected at $741 billion, while industrial construction is projected at $684 billion and infrastructure investment at $399 billion.

The report also examines agricultural markets. An analysis of 179 Bureau of Economic Analysis economic areas found that the top 40 agricultural markets account for more than 70% of agricultural employment.

"The value of this report lies in helping businesses move from reacting to planning," adds Renken. "Understanding where demand is expected to grow gives decision makers the confidence to invest in the right markets and position equipment more effectively, ultimately supporting them to effectively plan for sustainable growth."

The report was developed using construction spending forecasts, metropolitan economic trends, projected employment growth, data center capacity estimates, and agricultural economic indicators.

"Construction spending isn't increasing evenly across the country, and that's what makes this report so valuable," concluded Mavrick. "Merlo America shares our belief that businesses make better decisions when they have better market intelligence. Together, we've developed a report that helps contractors, dealers, and rental companies identify where opportunity is emerging and plan for it with greater confidence."