Equipment Rental Market Expected to Grow Through 2028

The U.S. construction and industrial equipment (CIE) and general tool rental industry is expected to continue growing through 2028, according to the American Rental Association’s (ARA) latest quarterly economic forecast.

The combined industry is projected to grow 3.4% in 2026, reaching $83.5 billion. The forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous quarter.

ARA projects combined CIE and general tool rental revenue will grow 4.4% in 2027 and 5.1% in 2028, slightly higher than the organization’s previous projections for those years.

Tom Doyle, ARA vice president, program development, said rental revenue growth reflects changes in the equipment market and a preference for rental over ownership.

“The latest ARA Rentalytics updates confirm the equipment rental structural changes toward rentals,” said Doyle. “The rental revenue increase indicates the preference for renting over ownership. The reasons are many for the growth, including the access to the equipment versus the asset ownership and the economics of renting. While rental revenue has increased, the results are mixed. If you have any of the large infrastructure projects or data center buildouts, you’re in a stronger market with generally better results.”

The forecast also accounts for economic factors that could influence construction activity.

Scott Hazelton, managing director at S&P Global, said U.S. growth has remained resilient, but inflation and energy costs remain among the factors that could affect the forecast.

“If inflation stays elevated through this year, that limits what the federal reserve can do with interest rates, and in fact we’ve seen housing starts fail to move and most recently the numbers we saw for construction spend and home improvement spending was down too.”

Hazelton also discussed potential effects from energy prices and tariffs.

“At the same time, Hazelton said the risk to the forecast of inflation through oil prices as well as through tariffs “are relatively, right now, lower-risk outcomes. It’s unlikely we’ll see a major change in the Middle East to higher prices. In fact, we think, if anything, they’ll get lower as tensions cool somewhat. And the tariff picture — the Supreme Court has already ruled on what [the government] can and can’t do.”

Canada’s combined CIE and general tool rental industry is projected to grow 5.2% in 2026, reaching $6.3 billion. Growth is then projected at 5.4% in 2027 and 5.5% in 2028.

The ARA attributed the projected Canadian growth to increases in infrastructure spending and oilfield development.

The organization also projects continued growth in event rentals. U.S. event rental revenue is forecast to increase 9.5% in 2026 to $6.2 billion, while Canadian event rental revenue is projected to grow 6.1% to $280 million.